A Two-Speed Recovery Emerges
China's housing market is sending sharply divergent signals across city tiers, with tier-one cities powering a recovery while lower-tier markets lag. For the week of August 2–8 (Week 32), 30 major cities logged 1.51 million square metres of new home sales, up 3.4% year-on-year, according to China Index Academy (CIA) data. Secondary home transactions across 20 cities reached 24,463 units, a gain of 7.8% year-on-year.
Tier-One Cities Outperform
The standout performers were the four tier-one cities:
- New home sales: 490,000 sqm, +32.2% year-on-year
- Secondary home transactions: 8,802 units, +13.3% year-on-year
- Shanghai secondary homes: +22.3% year-on-year — the strongest of any tier-one city
Price Data: New Homes Up, Secondary Mixed
July national data from the NBS showed that among 70 monitored cities, 8 saw secondary home prices rise, while tier-one new home prices环比 rose 0.63% in July — with Shanghai leading at +0.96%, the highest nationally. Tier-two cities showed more mixed signals, and lower-tier markets remained broadly subdued.
What Is Driving Tier-One Strength?
Policy easing — particularly in Beijing and Shanghai — is drawing buyers back to the market. Tighter land supply in core urban areas is supporting new home prices, while improved buyer sentiment following the July 30 Politburo meeting has shortened decision cycles for both upgraders and first-time buyers.