Two First-Tier Cities, Two Different Strengths
China's first-tier property markets showed unusual resilience in what is normally a seasonal lull. Shenzhen delivered the volume story in July 2026, while Shanghai delivered the price story.
Shenzhen: Volumes Up Across the Board
Shenzhen registered 8,324 new and second-hand residential transactions in July 2026, up 13.8% year on year, according to the Shenzhen Municipal Housing and Construction Bureau. The breakdown:
| Segment | July 2026 units | Year-on-year |
|---|---|---|
| New commercial housing | 3,529 | +32.7% |
| Second-hand housing | 4,795 | +3.0% |
| Total | 8,324 | +13.8% |
Second-hand homes accounted for roughly 60% of total residential transactions. Data from the Leyoujia Research Center put July second-hand signings at 4,795 units, down 6% from June but holding near the 5,000-unit level widely treated as the local boom-bust line.
The new-home surge of 32.7% was helped by a wave of higher-quality launches. Projects built to the city's good housing standard achieved average sell-through rates of about 70% on opening day. A separate segment also boomed: Shenzhen recorded nearly 6,978 primary and secondary commercial apartment transactions in the first seven months of 2026, up 60.6% year on year.
Shanghai: The Only First-Tier City With Prices Up on Both Sides
Shanghai was the only first-tier city in July 2026 in which both new and second-hand home prices rose month on month, according to reporting by CCTV Finance on August 2. New home prices rose 0.96% month on month, the fastest increase in the country. Second-hand prices rose 0.09%, with the sample average at 55,277 yuan per square metre.
Volumes were more modest: Shanghai recorded 2,796 commercial residential transactions in July, excluding affordable housing. Luxury launches were the standout, with several high-end projects selling out on their opening day.
Momentum has carried into August. As of August 8, Shanghai had logged roughly 3,426 new home transactions and 6,017 second-hand transactions for the month to date, the latter including residential, commercial-office and parking units. On August 8 alone the city recorded 273 new home sales and 1,115 second-hand sales.
The National Picture
- Across 20 major cities, second-hand residential transactions reached 885,000 units in January-July 2026, up 6.1% year on year.
- New home transaction area across 50 key cities fell 10.9% year on year over the same period, to about 82.99 million square metres.
- Top-100 developer sales fell 13.3% year on year in July.
The pattern is one of narrowing but persistent divergence: core first-tier cities with high-quality supply are absorbing demand, while the aggregate national market continues to contract.
Policy Overhang
Beijing's easing package effective August 8, 2026 cut the social insurance requirement for non-hukou buyers inside the Fifth Ring Road from two years to one, aligning the capital with Shanghai and Shenzhen. With all three of China's largest markets now operating on a one-year threshold, attention turns to whether Guangzhou follows and whether the August transaction data in Shenzhen and Shanghai can sustain July's pace once the initial policy impulse fades.