Range-Bound Despite Global Dollar Strength
China's yuan traded in a narrow 6.77–6.79 band against the US dollar through mid-July 2026 — a period when the dollar strengthened globally amid tariff escalations and a hawkish US Federal Reserve. The PBOC set the daily reference rate at 6.7934 on July 17, with onshore spot trading at 6.77–6.78 and the offshore rate at 6.78–6.79.
Recent Rate Summary
| Date | USD/CNY Reference Rate | Onshore Spot (approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| July 14–15, 2026 | ~6.775 | 6.77–6.78 |
| July 17, 2026 | 6.7934 | 6.77–6.78 onshore |
| July 19, 2026 | 6.7915 (mid-point) | 6.79–6.80 offshore |
The 6.77–6.79 band represents a relatively tight range for USD/CNY, especially given the external pressures: US tariff hikes, dollar index strength and a slowing Chinese property sector that historically weakens the yuan. The PBOC's daily fixing and its toolkit of capital-flow management tools have been sufficient to anchor expectations.
Support Factors
Several forces are preventing yuan depreciation despite headwinds: China's current-account surplus, $3.2 trillion in FX reserves, the growing RMB share in China's own cross-border settlements (52.9%), and strong yuan-denominated bond yields attracting foreign portfolio inflows. The currency has actually appreciated modestly on a trade-weighted basis in 2026.
Outlook
The PBOC has room to ease domestic rates — inflation is well below its 3% target — but is unlikely to allow sharp yuan weakening that would risk capital outflows or stoke imported inflation. Barring a major external shock, the yuan is expected to remain in the 6.70–6.85 range through year-end, with the PBOC using the 6.80 level as a soft floor.