A Four-Month Streak for Tier-1 Cities
China's tier-1 cities — Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen — have now recorded four consecutive months of rising new-home selling prices from March through June 2026, NBS data confirmed in mid-July. The sustained price recovery in the premium segment stands in contrast to the broader national picture, where most smaller cities remain in price correction.
June 2026: 70-City Snapshot
Across the 70 monitored cities, the divergence was pronounced:
- Tier-1 cities: new-home prices rose month-on-month; second-hand prices also up (+0.3% MoM nationally for tier-1 second-hand)
- Second- and third-tier cities: prices either fell or held flat
- 100-city second-hand average: 12,639 yuan per square metre, down 0.42% MoM in June — 88 of 70 monitored cities still declining on a monthly basis
- Shanghai second-hand: +0.10% MoM in June
- Shenzhen second-hand: turned positive at +0.03% MoM in June
Policy Support Underpinning the Upturn
The tier-1 recovery is being sustained by a combination of factors: historically low mortgage rates (five-year LPR at 3.5%), relaxation of purchase restrictions in several cities, and the property financing 'white list' mechanism that has accelerated delivery of pre-sold homes, restoring buyer confidence in developers' viability. Demand for well-located, completed properties in top-tier cities remains robust given limited supply in prime areas.
Unfinished Business
Even within tier-1 cities, the recovery is uneven: newer, well-connected developments command strong demand while older stock with fewer amenities continues to face pricing pressure. The broader goal for policymakers is to extend the tier-1 recovery outward to second- and third-tier cities — a challenge that hinges on progress in inventory clearance, developer financing and broader economic confidence.