Resale Gains Ground in July
While new home transactions in China's first-tier cities fell 42.1% week-on-week in the third week of July, the resale segment painted a markedly different picture. The four major cities — Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen and Hangzhou — recorded a combined 1,772 secondary-home transactions per day in mid-July, with Shanghai alone posting a 33.4% day-on-day surge on July 16, according to data from research firm 100njz.com.
Why Secondary Homes Are Winning
Three structural forces are driving buyers toward the resale market:
- Immediate availability: Unlike new builds tied to presale timelines, completed secondary homes can be delivered within weeks, appealing to buyers wary of construction delays
- Price transparency: Secondary prices are established and negotiable, whereas new project prices are set by developers with less room for adjustment
- Policy parity: Recent mortgage policy changes treat first and second mortgages equivalently when the original loan is repaid, removing a historical disadvantage for upgraders
Tier-1 Price Resilience
Secondary home prices in the four major cities have now risen for four consecutive months through June. NBS data showed June secondary prices up 0.1% in Beijing, 0.4% in Shanghai, 0.4% in Guangzhou and 0.3% in Shenzhen month-on-month — a rare sustained rally in the resale segment.
Implications for Developers
The trend puts further pressure on developers to accelerate delivery of presold units, as buyer confidence depends increasingly on track records rather than price incentives. Several major developers, including China Vanke and China Jinmao, have prioritised completion of existing projects over launching new phases.
Looking Ahead
Market observers expect the secondary-to-new-build ratio to continue favouring resale in H2, particularly in tier-1 cities where inventory is scarce and demand persistent. In lower-tier markets, oversupply will continue to suppress both segments.