Record Half-Year for RMB Internationalisation
China's cross-border settlement data for H1 2026 delivers a landmark figure: the RMB now accounts for 52.9% of all Chinese cross-border payments, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported on July 17. The share has risen from 51.6% in full-year 2025, a gain of 1.3 percentage points, driven by trade denominated in yuan with Belt and Road partners, ASEAN nations and commodity exporters.
H1 2026 Cross-Border Settlement Record
- Total cross-border receipts and payments: $9.2 trillion, up 21% year-on-year — a new H1 record
- Bank forex transactions (buying/selling): $2.9 trillion combined, up 24% year-on-year, also a record for H1
- RMB share of cross-border flows: 52.9%, up 1.3pp from 2025 full year
Why RMB Is Winning
The structural drivers are powerful: US dollar dominance and SWIFT-based sanctions have pushed China and its trading partners to seek alternatives, while China's massive trade surplus and global RMB liquidity network make it a credible settlement currency. For Southeast Asian manufacturers, Middle Eastern energy exporters and Belt and Road infrastructure clients, settling in RMB reduces dollar dependency and currency-conversion costs.
Geopolitical Context
The Ukraine conflict and Western financial sanctions on Russia accelerated RMB adoption by proxy: companies that cannot access SWIFT through Russian correspondent banks have shifted to CIPS. Even as the US-China trade relationship remains tense, the RMB's trade-settlement role continues to expand in regions where geopolitical alignment with Washington is lower.
Outlook
SAFE projects steady further gains, with a medium-term trajectory toward 55–60% RMB share as China's capital account gradually liberalises and yuan commodity pricing (oil, metals) expands. The pace will depend on how quickly China widens two-way capital market access and extends RMB commodity benchmarks globally.