Beijing — After a multi-year downturn, China's property market is showing its clearest signs yet of finding a floor in 2026, as a convergence of monetary, fiscal, and city-level measures pushes the sector toward the long-sought goal of "stopping the decline and stabilizing" (止跌回稳).
A Policy Bottom Takes Shape
At the Central Economic Work Conference, policymakers explicitly called for "stabilizing the real estate market" through city-specific measures to control new supply, digest inventory, and optimize provision. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has echoed the stance, pledging to acquire existing commercial homes for use as affordable housing, relocation housing, dormitories, and talent apartments.
Six Signals of Stabilization
Industry tracker CRIC identified six market signals pointing to a possible turnaround in 2026, noting that transaction volumes in core cities have begun to recover and price declines are narrowing. CITIC Securities argues the market now has an "endogenous basis" to bottom out, forecasting a narrower contraction in sales and development investment versus 2025.
- New-home supply has visibly tightened, with starts and completions at roughly 30–60% of prior peaks
- Mortgage costs have fallen sharply, lowering the bar for a future recovery
- "Good housing" (好房子) construction continues to create fresh demand
- Inventory buybacks and urban-village renewal support demand
Cautious Optimism
Still, headwinds remain. Second-hand listing pressure persists, rents are soft, and price expectations remain fragile. But with the "policy bottom" widely seen as established, most institutions now expect the market to gradually exit its adjustment phase in the mid-to-latter part of the 15th Five-Year Plan period.
Source: CRIC, CITIC Securities, Xinhua, 2026