A Changing Growth Mix
As China's H1 2026 GDP rose 4.7%, the composition of growth is shifting decisively. The NBS noted that new quality productive forces contributed more than 40% of overall expansion, offsetting softness in property and traditional heavy industry.
Evidence in the Trade Mix
- Mechanical & electronic exports: +20.1% YoY, 63.5% of total exports
- High-tech product exports: +39% YoY
- Own-brand exports: +25.4% YoY
- Automobile exports: +48.3% YoY
Services Lead
The tertiary sector grew 5.2% in H1, the fastest of the three industries, driven by digital services, travel, health and elder care. This aligns with Beijing's 'high-quality development' agenda of moving up the value chain.
Why It Matters
The rise of new drivers improves growth quality and resilience: demand is less dependent on real estate and more on technology, green transition and consumption. The transition is uneven, but the direction is consistent with the 15th Five-Year Plan's innovation-led priorities.