Record First Half for Chinese Trade
China's total foreign trade reached $3.67 trillion in the first half of 2026, a year-on-year surge of 21.2%, customs data showed. Exports totalled $2.13 trillion, up 17.6%, while imports grew even faster at 22.1% — a pattern that reflects both global demand recovery and a rebuilding of domestic inventories after the 2025 destocking cycle.
Regional Breakdown
| Region | H1 2026 Export Growth | Share of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Asia | +21.1% | Over 50% |
| Africa | +26.2% | Smaller base, high growth |
| Europe | Steady | ~18% |
| North America | +1.1% | Near zero growth |
| United States | +0.2% | Minimal |
The US Paradox
North America — and the United States in particular — is the standout underperformer. Export growth to the US of just +0.2% versus an overall pace of +17.6% reflects the cumulative drag of US tariff escalation and the ongoing trade-policy uncertainty. Analysts at Guotai Junan Securities note that non-US markets — particularly Asia and Africa — are absorbing the excess capacity that US restrictions have displaced.
Structural Implications
The near-stall in US-bound exports represents China's largest structural trade challenge for 2026. Diversification into Belt and Road markets is cushioning the blow — trade with BRI countries reached 12.97 trillion yuan, up 14.8% — but the loss of US market momentum tightens the external demand buffer as property-sector headwinds persist.