Official Data: A Challenging First Half
China's National Bureau of Statistics released its comprehensive H1 2026 real estate data on July 15, painting a picture of a sector still navigating deep structural adjustments despite targeted policy support. The numbers reflect ongoing contraction across investment, sales, and funding channels.
Investment: Sharp Decline Across the Board
Real estate development investment reached 3,807.4 billion yuan in the first half of 2026, representing a year-on-year decline of 18.0%. Residential investment accounted for 2,930.0 billion yuan, down 17.8% year-on-year. The scale of contraction underscores continued caution among developers amid uncertain sales outlooks and tight financing conditions.
Sales: Volume and Value Both in Retreat
| Metric | H1 2026 Value | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| New commercial floor space sold | 401.4 million m² | -11.6% |
| Residential floor space sold | — | -12.4% |
| Total sales value | 3,794.5 billion yuan | -13.6% |
Funding: Tight Credit Conditions Persist
Funds in place for real estate development totaled 4,023.3 billion yuan, down 20.2% year-on-year. Domestic loans reached only 571.6 billion yuan, a steep 31.7% decline, as banks continued to apply stringent risk controls on property-sector lending.
Silver Linings: Inventory and Price Stability
Despite the headline declines, several leading indicators suggest the rate of deterioration is easing. Month-on-month price indices in tier-1 cities have turned positive, and unsold inventory has declined for four consecutive months — pointing toward a potential stabilization in the quarters ahead.