Growth Slows but Remains Resilient
China's economy expanded 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on July 15. Gross domestic product reached 69.57 trillion yuan (approximately $10.28 trillion), marking a moderate deceleration from the 5.0% recorded in Q1, as Q2 growth came in at 4.3% YoY.
Industry Breakdown
| Sector | H1 2026 Value | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Primary (agriculture) | 3,152.2 billion yuan | +3.7% |
| Secondary (industry) | 25,047.3 billion yuan | +3.9% |
| Tertiary (services) | 41,370.9 billion yuan | +5.2% |
The services sector continued to lead growth, contributing the largest share of output. New quality productive forces—advanced manufacturing, green technology, and the digital economy—contributed more than 40% of overall growth, offsetting weakness in traditional engines like real estate.
Policy Outlook
With H1 growth running just below the full-year around-5% target, policymakers retain room for measured support. Analysts expect continued emphasis on domestic demand, technology self-reliance, and a stabilizing property sector rather than broad-based stimulus.