National Accounts Show Broad-Based Expansion
China's gross domestic product expanded to 69.57 trillion yuan ($10.28 trillion) in the first half of 2026, up 4.7 percent year-on-year at constant prices, according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on July 15. The figure underscores an economy that is growing solidly, though momentum has moderated from previous years. The Q2 reading of 4.3 percent marked the weakest quarterly performance since 2022, raising questions about the durability of the recovery.
Growth Drivers in H1 2026
Industrial output remained a bright spot, with large-scale industrial enterprises logging 5.4 percent growth in H1 2026. The services sector continued to lead overall economic expansion, while the goods trade surplus widened sharply on the back of booming exports. Fixed-asset investment expanded, supported by state-led infrastructure spending and new-energy manufacturing capacity.
Per Capita Disposable Income
Per capita disposable income across urban and rural households reached 19,036 yuan in H1 2026, a nominal increase that outpaced consumer spending growth, underscoring continued caution among Chinese households despite rising wages and improving employment conditions. The unemployment rate held broadly stable throughout the period.
Outlook for the Second Half
Policymakers face the dual challenge of supporting a flagging property sector while avoiding excessive stimulus. The State Council has pledged continued fiscal expansion and targeted monetary easing to sustain growth momentum heading into the second half of 2026. Markets are closely watching for a potential reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and further cuts to the Loan Prime Rate.