Beijing — China's economy has maintained a steady recovery trajectory heading into the second half of 2026, with official first-quarter data and a batch of June leading indicators pointing to resilient momentum ahead of the National Bureau of Statistics' (NBS) half-year briefing scheduled for July 15.
Q1 Lays a Solid Foundation
According to NBS figures released on April 16, China's gross domestic product reached 334,193 billion yuan in the first quarter, expanding 5.0% year-on-year in constant prices — a steady start that kept growth within the government's annual target range.
- Value-added of above-scale industry: +6.1% year-on-year
- Total retail sales of consumer goods: +2.4% year-on-year
- Fixed-asset investment: +1.7% year-on-year
- Total imports and exports of goods: +15.0% year-on-year
- Average surveyed urban unemployment rate: 5.3%
Leading Indicators Turn Positive
A string of June forward-looking gauges — including the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), the logistics prosperity index, and the warehouse index — sent encouraging signals, suggesting the broader economy continues to trend upward. The NBS is set to detail full H1 performance at a State Council Information Office press conference on July 15, with Deputy Commissioner Mao Shengyong fielding questions.
What to Watch in H2
Analysts highlight three pillars for the remainder of the year: continued policy support for domestic demand, the steady stabilization of the property sector, and the rollout of "new quality productive forces" across manufacturing. With external demand proving stronger than expected in Q1, attention is turning to whether consumption and private investment can pick up the baton in the second half.
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Xinhua, July 2026