Seasonal Slowdown Amid Resilient Year-on-Year Trend
Twenty major Chinese cities recorded approximately 125,000 secondary-home transactions in July 2026, down 6.0% month-on-month but still up 9.3% year-on-year, according to China Index Academy (CIA) data cited on August 3. The month-on-month decline reflects the traditional July–August off-season for property, but the year-on-year gain underscores continued market support from easing policies.
New Home Sales Underperformed
New-home transactions in 100 cities fell more sharply. Sales area declined approximately 17% month-on-month in July, though it managed a modest 4% year-on-year gain. The weaker new-home performance relative to the secondary market reflects buyer caution, delivery risk concerns and a continued shift toward completed properties.
Tier-1 Cities Hold Up
Despite the overall slowdown, Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen all posted year-on-year transaction gains in July, indicating that core-city demand remains more resilient. Policy tailwinds — including reduced transaction taxes, eased purchase restrictions and historically low mortgage rates — continue to underpin activity in top-tier markets.
Market Dynamics
| Metric | July 2026 | MoM Change | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20-city secondary home transactions | ~125,000 units | -6.0% | +9.3% |
| 100-city new home sales area | — | -17% | +4% |
| 50-city approved new supply | — | -30% (approx) | — |
What It Means
The secondary market's year-on-year resilience signals that easing policies are working — but July's seasonal dip shows the market lacks self-sustaining momentum. Supply in the new-home segment has tightened, with 50 cities approving approximately 30% less new supply year-on-year, which could rebalance the market in coming months if demand holds. Analysts at CIA expect August to remain subdued before a potential rebound in September–October if policy support continues.