July 2026: A Story of Two Markets
China's 100-city housing data for July 2026, released by the China Index Academy on August 1, presents a textbook case of market bifurcation. New-home prices rose a marginal 0.26% month-on-month to a national average of 17,229 yuan per sqm — up 2.09% year-on-year — while second-hand home prices fell 0.44% MoM, with the resale market declining in a striking 92 of 100 monitored cities.
Tiered Performance in New-Home Prices
| City Tier | July 2026 MoM Change | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Tier-1 (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) | +0.63% | Rising |
| Tier-2 (major provincial capitals) | +0.14% | Rising modestly |
| Tier-3/4 (representative sample) | −0.07% | Slight decline |
| 100-city average | +0.26% | Marginal gain |
Only 27 of 100 cities recorded MoM new-home price gains, while 64 fell and nine were unchanged — illustrating how concentrated the modest uptick is in a handful of top urban centres.
The Second-Hand Market Picture
The second-hand segment, widely considered a truer barometer of underlying demand, tells a consistent story of pressure. The national average resale price fell 0.44% MoM — a reflection of high inventory, cautious buyers and the lingering effects of the multi-year property correction. Second-hand markets are more sensitive to financing conditions and buyer confidence than the new-home market, where developers can more effectively hold pricing lines.
City-Level Price Rankings (New Homes, June 2026 Data)
- 1st — Shenzhen: 68,869 yuan/sqm
- 2nd — Shanghai: 61,931 yuan/sqm
- 3rd — Beijing: 53,678 yuan/sqm
- 4th — Guangzhou: 37,602 yuan/sqm
- 5th — Hangzhou: 33,168 yuan/sqm
- 6th — Xiamen: 31,607 yuan/sqm
Policy Implications
The dual-track pattern — resilient new-home prices in tier-1 cities versus broad-based second-hand declines — complicates policy. Broad monetary easing risks reigniting speculation in top cities, while targeted support for second-hand markets in tier-2/3 cities may not move the needle given structural supply overhangs. The most likely path forward is continued mortgage rate reductions and purchase subsidies for first-home buyers, with tier-1 cities left largely to their own dynamics.