A Tale of Two Markets
China's 100-city property market sent a nuanced signal in July 2026, according to the China Index Academy's monthly price report released August 1. New-home prices edged up 0.26% month-on-month to a national average of 17,229 yuan per sqm — up 2.09% year-on-year — while second-hand home prices fell 0.44% MoM, with a striking 92 out of 100 cities registering monthly declines in the resale market.
New-Home Price Breakdown
| City Tier | July 2026 MoM Change |
|---|---|
| Tier-1 (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen) | +0.63% |
| Tier-2 (major provincial capitals) | +0.14% |
| Tier-3/4 (smaller cities, representative sample) | −0.07% |
| 100-city average | +0.26% |
Only 27 of 100 cities posted MoM gains in new-home prices, while 64 saw declines and nine held steady — illustrating how concentrated the modest new-home uptick is in a handful of major urban centres.
Second-Hand Market Remains Under Pressure
The second-hand segment, widely seen as a truer barometer of underlying demand, tells a different story: the national average resale price fell 0.44% MoM, with 92 cities declining. Second-hand markets are more sensitive to buyer sentiment, financing conditions and the availability of new-home supply — all of which continue to weigh on prices even as new-home developers hold the line.
Market Drivers and Headwinds
- Land costs: A series of premium land auctions in Beijing and Shanghai are anchoring new-home prices in tier-1 cities
- Inventory overhang: Completed but unsold inventory remains elevated in tier-2 and tier-3 cities
- Demand bifurcation: Buyers are concentrating in cities with stronger economic fundamentals and demographic inflows
- Policy effects: Government purchase subsidies and mortgage easing are helping new-home sales but filtering only slowly into the second-hand market
What It Means
The dual-track pattern — resilient new-home prices in top cities versus broad-based second-hand declines — reflects the uneven nature of China's property recovery. Policymakers will be watching whether the divergence widens or narrows through Q3, as any sustained second-hand market weakness could dent household wealth效应 and slow the consumer recovery.