Average New Home Price Rises Despite Weak Breadth
China's new-home market posted a marginal gain in July 2026, while the secondary market extended its slide, according to the China Index Academy's (CIA) 100-city price index released on August 1. The average new-home price across 100 cities reached 17,229 yuan per square metre, up 0.26% month-on-month and 2.09% year-on-year.
The Catch: Most Cities Are Still Falling
The headline rise masks underlying weakness. Of the 100 cities surveyed, only 27 saw month-on-month price increases; 64 cities recorded declines and 9 were unchanged. The headline figure was propped up by first-tier cities — Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hangzhou and Chengdu — where premium project launches pushed up the national average.
Secondary Market Under Broader Pressure
The secondary market told a starker story. The average secondary-home price across 100 cities fell to 12,584 yuan per square metre, down 0.44% month-on-month — a widening of the June decline. Of 100 cities, only 8 posted month-on-month price gains, while 92 saw prices fall, underscoring persistent inventory overhang and price-cutting by sellers seeking liquidity.
New vs. Secondary: Structural Divergence
| Segment | July Avg Price | MoM Change | Cities Up | Cities Down |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New homes (100-city avg) | 17,229 yuan/m² | +0.26% | 27 | 64 |
| Secondary homes (100-city avg) | 12,584 yuan/m² | -0.44% | 8 | 92 |
The divergence reflects structural differences: new-home averages are skewed upward by government-subsidized affordable housing projects and higher-end launches in tier-1 cities. Secondary homes face ongoing selling pressure as owners seek exits and inventory remains elevated.
Outlook
July is traditionally a low season for property transactions, and analysts expect the dual-track pattern to persist into August unless macroeconomic or property-specific policy support intensifies. Market participants are closely watching whether the Politburo's stated commitment to 'stabilise the real estate market' translates into concrete demand-side measures in the coming months.