Online contract signing data from Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen all recorded year-on-year growth in early August 2026, providing the clearest evidence yet that China's housing market recovery is broadening beyond price stabilization into sustained transaction volume expansion. The data reinforces the narrative of "differentiation and repair" that has come to define the market's trajectory through 2026.
Transaction Volumes Respond to Policy Support
The year-on-year growth in signings across three geographically diverse major cities — the political capital, a leading new-economy hub in the Yangtze River Delta, and the technology capital of the Greater Bay Area — suggests the recovery is not confined to a single region or market type. Each city has implemented its own combination of purchase restriction relaxation, provident fund expansion, and new home price incentives, with transaction data now reflecting the cumulative impact.
In Beijing, the latest policy adjustments — including the reduction of the social insurance requirement for non-local buyers from two years to one year — took effect August 8, and early transaction data indicates an immediate response from the market. The city's secondary home market has also shown notable resilience, with prices rising for a fourth consecutive month.
Shanghai's State-Led Market Activation
While Beijing, Hangzhou, and Shenzhen show organic demand recovery, Shanghai's market benefits additionally from the state's active intervention: the city's program of state-enterprise purchases of second-hand homes for rental conversion, now expanded to all central districts, is directly absorbing inventory and stimulating the upgrade purchase chain. Shanghai's secondary home prices have risen for multiple consecutive months, and the city leads the nation in new home price appreciation with a 0.96% monthly gain in July.
Landlord Sentiment Diverges
Despite the improving transaction data, market observers note that seller sentiment remains divided. In core city districts, owners increasingly hold firm on pricing expectations — and in some cases raise asking prices — while in peripheral districts and weaker cities, sellers continue to accept discounts. This divergence in expectations reinforces the structural differentiation theme and suggests that price recovery will remain geographically concentrated even as transaction volumes improve more broadly.
Outlook
Looking toward the autumn selling season, analysts expect transaction volumes to build further, supported by the traditional seasonal pickup in buyer activity, continued policy support, and the pipeline of new project launches in major cities. The key risk remains the persistence of inventory pressure in lower-tier markets, which could weigh on national aggregates even as core cities thrive.
The overall assessment from the market data: China's housing market has moved from stabilization to selective expansion, with core cities leading the way and policy support providing a durable floor under transaction activity.