China's Big-City Economy in Numbers
China's 67 largest cities — the 'large and strong cities' — accounted for 61% of national GDP as of 2025, a share that has risen by 2.19 percentage points over two years, according to the China Large and Strong City Index Report 2026 released jointly by the Shanghai Jiao Tong University China Institute for Development Studies and the Shenzhen Research Institute on July 25, 2026. More striking, these 67 cities contributed 87.37% of incremental GDP growth — far exceeding their stock share and indicating accelerating concentration of economic activity.
Why Concentration Is Accelerating
The gap between the 61% stock share and the 87.37% incremental contribution reflects the self-reinforcing dynamics of urbanisation in China: cities with existing industrial clusters, superior talent pools and better infrastructure attract disproportionate investment, drawing both capital and people away from smaller towns and rural areas. The report identified the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei clusters as the most significant contributors to this concentration.
Policy Implications
- Industrial clustering: cities specialising in technology and advanced manufacturing (Shenzhen, Suzhou, Hangzhou) showed the highest per-capita productivity gains
- Population mobility: continued rural-to-urban migration is amplifying the big-city GDP share, even as national population growth slows
- Fiscal implications: the 67 cities generate the bulk of national tax revenue, creating fiscal dependencies in smaller municipalities that lose population and economic activity
The Dual-Speed Economy
The report highlights the structural tension at the heart of China's regional policy: megacities thrive as innovation and export hubs, while smaller cities struggle with property devaluation, demographic decline and weaker public services. This divergence complicates the goal of 'common prosperity' and puts pressure on central transfers to lagging regions.
What This Means for Investors
For business strategy and capital allocation, the data is a clear signal: the 67 large cities — and within them, the top-tier clusters — represent the highest-return environment for investment. Real estate in premier cities, listed companies headquartered there, and supply chains anchored in these clusters merit particular attention.
Source: Shanghai Jiao Tong University China Institute for Development Studies, China Large and Strong City Index Report 2026, July 25, 2026